a conspiracy theory

Written Long Before the Mr Patil became Mrs Patil:

What if Karunanidhi is put forth as the presidential candidate? My guess is he will win, and quite fascinatingly, the ceremonial post could fetch him all he wants at this point of his life. Remember, he is 84.

With time in power decreasing and a general feeling of discontent slowly building up among the people, we will avoid taking for granted that UPA will be unanimous. This doesn't change a thing though, as all stakes are in his favour.

SURE SUPPORT: DPA's 38, Congress and Left in the rest of the country - at least CPM and CPI won't dare to oppose him - and RJD are the minimum support bank.

HIGHLY PROBABLE: NCP might. Considering that Pawar does not have a candidate of his own, considering that MK carries himself around as a elder leader who can't be pushed around by some married-to-a-Gandhi lady, and - here is the clincher - considering that this is the one chance when he can ensure that Congress lose Raisina Hill for a decade, Pawar should come forward with open arms.

JD(S) can support him, and thus openly declare itself separate from communal BJP, especially with the time has come for transfer of CM post.

NC and PDP could reasonably support him as he is a minority-loving secularist.

Can't Paswan be convinced with a few hundred crores plus MK's minority background? I think he can be, if it is done in the right way through right people. Soon we may hear him say all minorities are Dalits.

Most of the regional parties, including NLD, JMM, TRS, AGP and the like can be bought over with lesser money than a big plot on the IT-Corridor. Don't forget that they needed only one - a single large size, VIP brand - suitcase money earlier to make up their mind on important national issues.

NO SUPPORT: There is only one party, one person who is this patriarch's nemesis: AIADMK, led by Amma. However, at this juncture, even after tagging MDMK's share, the whole vote bank that she has are less than 70 MLAs and 2 MPs. She is tenacious, but this exam needs numbers.

WON'T SUPPORT: BJP can't support him for obvious reasons.

FIXED!: TDP and SP can't support him as they will never be near Jayalalithaa again after that. SP's future in the upcoming LS elections looks bleak, while TDP may not by itself become a power bloc. Both are in the process of building a national front and are more anxious for her support. On the other hand, I wonder what these two self-proclaimed secularists do when faced with an option between Muslim loving MK and a BJP candidate. It's Hobson's choice, if we are talking about regional parties headquartered in Lucknow and Hyderabad.

WWMD?: In the case of almost all other candidates, Mayawati's support is a million dollar question. But coalition politics has placed MK in a curious position where, like in the case of NCP, BSP can settle important regional scores by supporting MK, a candidate who is not the first choice of SP. And like in the case of Dalit Paswan, Dalit Mayawati can support the grand-daddy of 69%.

There are more reasons. She has just straddled on power and is in need of big money. She has openly sought the support of Sonia Gandhi in the development of her state. Imagine a lady, who considers herself as prime ministerial material, making such an effort to bow down to a woman less flamboyant; a woman who heads a party that Mayawati helped decimating in its once-great, old fort. Sense brought Mallaya to Capt. Gopi's doors, remember?

The point is, she needs money and MK has ministries. He also has contacts. MK has direct access to the files of ministries and departments like Highways and Surface Transport (who won't love to show an expressway in the yearly DAVP ad?), IT and Communications (IT parks by STPI along the expressway/corridors, to be publicised along with similar DAVP ads), Home (the present minister of state would perfectly understand the truth about goondas, cases and enquires); though Chidambaram and Lalu may not be in complete favour, compulsions and their ministers of state could ``assist'' UP, MK can publicly request the younger doctor and his Union Ministry to set up state-of-art healthcare network in UP during a presidential visit. That will be extra hard to deny, as knowing MK, it would come as a request from the president, well laced with public affection, to his anbu-mani.

Maya will rediscover her `Guru'; a person with a staunch ideology and background to match the void of Kanshi Ram. Though MK as her `teacher' is as ceremonious the `president', she will never have to go to Sonia. This is one chance Mayawati has, to be nearer to the power centres in Delhi. She won't miss it.

HOW?: The key, I believe, is to convince Mayawati before any other `un-opposable'' name or reason is thrown in. She should propose MK's name. Then it checkmate for SP in UP. Who dares Mayawati, if we are talking about Indian president? Who dares MK, if we are talking about Indian politics?

HIROSHIMA-NAGASAKI: If Maya drops the shell, there won't be any `interpretation' of victory; it would be as decisive as WW-II.

Maya will take a lion's share, while all in the category `highly probable' will earn their own victories. `Fixed' are fucked, `Won't support' plays only in B division league.

But these are only the sideshows. The real game is played in Chennai, in the history and future of the state and the Dravidian movement.

President of India is the president of even Jaya and Vaiko, MK would famously comment after resigning his post from the party. As the 84-year-old steps out of Arivalayam, his poet-daughter will be placed at Delhi where she will hand-hold him to the functions the president attends, and will be the president's daughter in all circles. When it comes to the Marans' influence in the capital, what Baalu, Raja and even Kanimozhi can't do, the mere presence of MK would do.

The prestigious post of party president goes to Prof K Anbazhagan, the seniormost member. Government, which is `only' an extension of the political party, will be run by MK Stalin. Frankly speaking, Stalin's chance against Jaya in the coming election is to be seen. This could well be the only chance he can be the CM for the next two years at least if things go awfully wrong. Stalin as a CM with a hell lot of welfare measures has better chances than a local body minister, who hasn't really been there, done that.

TNCC could be offered Finance, the dogs really eat shit.

MK was overshadowed by MGR, a humiliation that was never returned. Though he aims for greatness, with friends and foes like Ramdoss and Jaya, he could be reduced to a statistical figure after decades into the future.

By being the first Dravidian president, he can carve his Kalaignar face on the Tamilian Mount Rushmore, alongside the saintly Periyar, and the mythical public servant Annadurai. Remember again that Tamilians now have a new TV, gas connection, cheap rice etc as his personal gifts.

Officially, he will be above criticisms, something that neither Jaya nor Vaiko would digest. Their options are limited, though.

Jaya has to return to power. But if that happens in the coming elections, she will be bound by protocol to wait at the Chennai Airport to receive the one person she openly hates, but who happens to be the First Person of India.

eom.06.06.07 - 05.40 hrs